Send me real-time posts from this site at my email
Alex Cho

Don't Bet on the Mobileye Arb-Spread Says Goldman Analyst

Goldman Sachs increased their price target on Mobileye, but only commensurate with the likelihood of deal close based on their proprietary weighting formula. The analysts reduced their recommendation from buy to neutral to reflect the risks of a deal not materializing, though they acknowledge that there’s an extremely high likelihood. Hence, Goldman’s price target of $56 is below Intel’s $63.54 bid for MBLY.

Here were the key comments made by Alexander Duval released to Goldman clients a couple days ago:

We continue to believe that Mobileye is leading the technological drive towards autonomous driving. We see it as well positioned given progress in REM (crowd-sourced mapping platform), signing VW and BMW onto its platform, as well as 10 Level 3/4 production programs including BMW, Audi and Nissan.

Our new 12-month price target of $56 (from $52) is now based on a 50% weighting to our DCF analysis and a 50% weighting to reflect M&A potential (based on a 13x 2020E EV/sales, unchanged, consistent with historical transactions within the space). This implies 8% downside potential, positioning MBLY in the third quartile of our EU Tech coverage.

The comments made by Duval at Goldman seems reasonable. If you couldn’t participate in the Mobileye trade prior to the announcement of a deal, it’s probably better not to participate at all.

I can agree with that wholeheartedly.

Welcome! Is it your First time here?

What are you looking for? Select your points of interest to improve your first-time experience:

Apply & Continue