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Alex Cho

Oppenheimer & Co. Stays on the Sidelines with Tesla Motors

Oppenheimer & Co. stayed on the sidelines with regards to TSLA, but still maintained their market perform rating. They were more optimistic on TSLA up until the SCTY merger, which is why then they removed their PT and lowered their rating.

Here were the key highlights from their most recent research report:

TSLA guided to 1H17 vehicle shipments of 47-50K vs. consensus of 51K. The company expects to reach annual production run rate of ~250K vehicles by 4Q17 and exceed ~500K at some point in 2018. We update our estimates to account for the combined reporting structure and management's shipment guidance. We now see FY17 revenue of $10.13B and Non-GAAP EPS of ($0.42) (was $8.94B and ($0.15)).

They go onto mention that Solar Panel deployments may slow:

Expect solar de-emphasis to continue. We have lowered our solar deployment expectation to 675MW in 2017 (from 865MW previously). We also lowered 2018E deployments to 795MW (from 935MW). Management indicated it expects near term cash burn to be negligible and to reach its target of $500M in synergies by 2019. We anticipate solar to be increasingly small portion of the company’s narrative.

Overall their commentary was insightful on solar, whereas their expectations on revenue and non-GAAP EPS was above management implied on earnings, but below on implied revenue assuming TSLA can sell 100k cars by end of FY’17.

It’s good analysts are precautious, as it creates substantial upside to future earnings results over the course of 2017.

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